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Friday, 2 February 2018

MarketMap 2018 Issue #3

January 31, 2018

“Most investors will concede that the most difficult part of managing a portfolio of stocks is identifying the formation of a major market top before it is too late. This is undoubtedly due to the universal enthusiasm for stocks, and generally positive economic news that usually dominates investor psychology at such times. But, the warning signs are nevertheless present for those willing and able to see them.”
Paul F. Desmond Lowry Research Corporation
Forecast are mostly about sales/marketing; they make a market. From a reasonable point of view, they point out opportunity upon which investors and traders apply a strategy to take advantage.
A forecast is applied to risk management as well. Yet I heard chief market strategies from BOA Merrill Lynch point out in a public financial news panel interview that the last year of a bull market is usually the best year. She pointed to 1999 as an example. Her logic because the best return year of the bull is the last year you don’t want to miss it.
There are many flaws in this logic; the main one is the gains of 1999 were wiped out in the first two months of 2000, not to mention the follow through decline into 2001-02.
Plus, it is clear in retrospect that ’99 was the last, but

MarketMap 2018 update January 23, 2018

MarketMap 2018 update

Through all the channels I listen to there is an overwhelming consensus that we are in a new secular bull market and there are no signs of a top and the market is virtually without risk.

The pundits hang their hat on the A/D line which is in gear and until it divergence the market is going higher. I mentioned this in the big issue newsletter. They also love the monthly RSI at a historical high of 85.

More recently the social media types off wall street look at ADX at 50 to infer the trend dynamics are higher. However, these extremely high levels above 50 by ADX when seen in a panic context, the 50 ADX is at a COT; the bull run since November 8, 2018, is a panic, emotionally “I can not afford to miss the move.”

What is critical here is the "off the chart" sentiment attending to the Trump's bull market. Extreme opinions shared widely on social media and financial news channels constitute the single most reliable indicator of an impending change of direction for an exchange.

One measure of this "SPECULATIVE INTENSITY" already peaked December 17,2018. BitCoin from that date has lost 40% plus.

Our CMT friend and associate Bob Prechter point to another measure of “speculative intensity" TMtraders can use it as a sign of a change of the trend is near.  The indication is the widening of the gap between the yield of junk bonds and yield US of Treasury bonds of similar maturities. When the spread widens, it is a reflection of the market without risk management considerations - signs of a change of a trend for stocks.

As you can see in our Early Table, the market is in a cluster of time windows likely to lead to a high pivot price, confirmed by a sizable decline %5 plus – established by our big swing (multi-month) systems sell (taking profits) and sell short signals before the end of the month.

MarketMap™2018 Issue #1 The best technical minds

MarketMap™2018 Issue #1

Financial crises are precipitated
they are not random events

As recent as 2016 major pessimistic headlines have bombarded the public. Such media spin on the financial markets keeps a lid on public participation. Especially that segment of the populace that has been disenfranchised from owning stocks.

However, the negative headlines all changed on November 8, 2016, coincidental with the “surprise” Trump election.  Since that date, the market outlook has changed from one of gridlock, which the market liked as it meant nothing gets done and Wall Street liked the status quo. Now with a laissez-faire President that will sign anything the Republican majority want for fiscal policy, well Wall Street is in love.

However, the initiated knows this has precedents and bear markets are something expected every several years, especially in this era of deregulated markets and corporatocracy.

The initiated knows, most boom and busts, if not all, that have plagued the American economy were generated by government creating a boom through easy excessive fiscal or monetary policy, which was soon followed by the inevitable bust, i.e., the inevitable taking of profits.

Media and Market Sentiment

The gaggle of Wall Street employees who are in love with the White House ... Remore

Monday, 26 June 2017

How to Spot a Lie

If you are laughing, no problem, it is out of frustration, I get it.

In today's modern era the cliche is "I don't know what to believe." I know that my friend sorry to say it but that is the facts!

That makes it tough, not knowing what to believe when it comes to making money with your money. The pain of not knowing what to trust will impact everything from the initial consideration to the profit/loss outcomes.

Plus most of us are sick of all the platitudes engulfing our trading life. Like," cut losses short and let profits run" and  "past performance is no guarantee of future results."


Traders rely on statistics, which suffer from an image problem. Ok got it, everyone knows there are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics. Even after the joke ends, today people just don't believe in statistics.

You only have to go back to the 2016 Presidential elections to see the failure of the polls preceding the election. Their inability to predict the outcome of the race accurately makes it easier to understand the public distrust in statistics.

There is a large plurality of people with no faith in statistics, leaving a clear division; and just not politically.

On the one side, there are people who see statistics as crucial. On the other side are individuals that see statistics as rigged. On the one hand, statistics are needed to move beyond emotional anecdotes, used as an objective measure of progress. While many other people only see fabricated numbers. This group feels the numbers do not reflect what's happening in their everyday lives.

On the one hand, statistics are needed to move beyond emotional anecdotes and used as an objective measure of progress. While many other people only see fabricated numbers. This group feels the numbers do not reflect what's happening in their everyday lives.

What makes the widespread distrust even more confusing for the informed trader is the knowledge we have that this time, this uninterrupted period of no market volatility, will not be different. That change will come back into the market, and it is not a dull idea when Warren Buffett says "the true investor (trader) welcomes volatility."

Does it go without saying that with change comes opportunity comes to those who are ready, right?

If we as traders have to rely on statistics, what are the ways to spot the lies and find the reliable numbers While some vendors hide their product under the veil of superficial high prices, in real life good advice is free, it is work that costs money.

So for the intermediate/advanced trader, who knows the current, no brainer market will end at some point, here is an opportunity to access three exclusive trading videos pull from our member's library. Give us your name and email for easy access to the following TMT short videos.

Fill out the three line form below with your full name and email for easy access to three short videos from our members only Advanced Trader Mentorship Series.

1. What is a robust strategy and how can you test for robustness?

2. What is an overlooked statistic in performance reports that of critical importance to the trader's success?

3. What is the decisive question traders need to answer today?

Sign up for three short videos intermediate/advanced traders

If you would like more than just a review of the above videos, make an appointment here for a real-time demonstration of our tactics or a free one day pass into our member's only blog.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Thinking Mans Trader 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264.NV USA., 800-618-3820

-- Thinking Mans Trader does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.