Tuesday, 4 April 2017
Tuesday, 3 January 2017
Wednesday, 21 December 2016
Thursday, 8 December 2016
MarketMap-2017is an annual three issue technical brief that provides traders with a scenario map for the upcoming year based on a historically tested mathematical formula. Traders gain insight into trend direction outlined for the year. More importantly, MarketMap provides a change of trend dates for the entire year. These dates pinpoint when traders can expect one of six types of change in direction. MarketMap gives the trader lead time to prepared and the ability apply the correct trading strategy.
Now is your chance to get your copies of TMT's annual MarketMap-2017 with the annual map of trends and the change of trend dates.
Virtually everyone's trade decisions could be impacted by the news event, economic events, political events broadcast by the mass media. I doubt seriously if you allow yourself to be reactive to such events or for them to be part of your trading strategy and, as a result, you consistently make money.
I would hope you have at least come to the realizations that news event based strategy is just speculation. Rather you want your trading to be objective and systematically based.
In 2010 I took my successful trading philosophy based first principles and decades worth of trading experience converted that into a comprehensive technical model to oversee all of my algorithmic - mechanical - trading strategies.
There are two main parts of the complete model. One is the Technical Event Model (TEM). This part of the overall systems anticipates changes in market context. In other words, direction trading signals only have a definition but no meaning unless the trader has an idea of what context they are coming from.
The second part of the master system is our MarketMap model that gives the trader major inflection dates, what TMT calls a change of trend dates (COTs) to expect Technical events.
The January barometer is likely the best known of any forecasting tool. It began as a bellwether month theory, if prices ended the month lower than it started the year, the next 11 months would be down. It was refined by the late and great Joe Granville ?a hero to me - to the first three days of January and later on in its evolution that included the low of the previous month of December needed to be broken to call the year bearish.
Here is part of the MarketMap-2016 published February 2016
In the last two years running January indicator has been bearish, including 2016. This year the price action in January fit all the requirements for a bearish outlook including the market taking out the lows posted in December 2015.
It was originally devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972; the January Barometer has registered only seven major errors since 1950 for an 88.9% accuracy ratio. When you net out the eight flat years (less than +/- 5%) the batting average slips to a .738, which includes 2015.
The exceptional years that witnessed bull advances are 1966, 1968, 1982, 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010. So over 50 years it missed three yet over the last 15 years it missed four out of seven down January's. Its batting average seems to be tailing off in the new millennium, maybe after getting too much notoriety.
The above graph is Thinking Mans Trader MarketMap for 2016 suggest that the year 2016 would be higher after the first half of the year is locked into a trading range. Our primary model of dates for major changes of trend (COTs) confirmed a major COT in mid-July, see table.
This primary time model is not about projecting a high or a low pivot; it is about a confluence of methods pointing to a time window for change, a change of trend.
Getting back to basics for a moment, there are only six trend changes. From up to down or up to sideways; down to up or down to sideways; sideways to up and sideways to down.
Both of these MarketMap models provide a nice and neat scenario for the year, and the bullish outcome of the current trading Dow range from 15,300 to 18,500. But while that gives me a warm and fussy feeling, it has little to do with how I will trade or my TMTs trade, except that it points out opportunities when no one else is looking for that change. It gives the trader an actual model to keep them from reacting to the hyper news media.
MarketMap puts my traders and me on the front foot, so there is no need to get caught by surprise not knowing what strategies to trade.
Our outlook is the bullish outlook for 2016.
Here is the real time ES with dates marked for cross check
Get your copy of MarketMap 2017, two important publications: the year-end MarketMap for 2017 and the MarketMap January 2017 map with COTs for 2017 for one low price of $69.00.
MarketMap 2017 -Trriple Issue
-- Thinking Mans Trader does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions express here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
Posted by Unknown at 02:23
Thursday, 10 November 2016
Thinking Man’s Trader
- Yesterday November 8, 2016 10:45 PM PST
Market Strategy Selection
The overnight reaction to Australia projecting Trump to win E College and Trump is winning is news real time news is outside TMT strategy. TMT does not care why unless the why is explained by a technical event because that is predictable.
From a forecast opportunity point of view. a decline expected into election day +/- a day or two was expected and a change of trend low on Nov. 8 +/- a day or two.
The chart below shows a few things.
1. the panic index on weekly and daily ES is at or near a panic extreme.
2. %BB-VIX on a daily basis is oversold. Weekly %BB-VIX is trending higher.
A low was in the forecast; it looks like a mini panic low at best if you are concerned about the long-term 401k, or related l-t equities.
What I found amazing was that with the very slow decline from the August -Sept peak, that mutual funds had raised cash to nearly 6.5% of net asset values, a higher amount compared to the low in March 2009!?
The implication is buying power.
From a day trading point of view, daily bar stock indices posted Rule2 on your charts Oct. 20 calling for increased Volatility.
Therefore day trading systems that like the action after rule 2 technical events should do well and to a lesser extent Rule 4. This advice is empirical observation and back testing of %BB-DBR for TF EMD and ES.
As I post this, all three of the major stock index futures in the Globex are trading below a windfall profit of 3 SDs. These levels are
3 Sds 2 SDs
ES = 2,064.02 - recover to 2,087.52
TF= 1,158.25 - recover to 1,485.83
EMD = 1,473.36 - recover to 1,485.83
A day session open below these levels is a give me the trade, a high probability of profit taking - short covering - and the squeeze of new shorts- put on in "emotional reaction" to a news event.
What I call the gift trade is outlined above, a day open below the 3 SD is a buy with a target of 2 SDs. Money management stops base on your risk profile or a percent of the 3 Sds - 2 SDs difference.
The above chart points out the low expected on election day. As always more to follow, inside TMT member's only community.
Posted by Unknown at 10:20